Will the New Development Bank officially announce that a loan will be made to a country before 1 June 2015?

On July 15, 2014 the leaders of the BRICS countries announced the New Development Bank to rival the World Bank and IMF. Its initial capitalization is $50B with equal contributions and voting rights from the five members.

China, however, is the largest contributor to the Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA), and the new bank will be headquartered in China. There is geopolitical dissent within the BRICS countries, and some fear China will dominate this new endeavor. In addition the organization must overcome hurdles of monitoring and compliance.

Notwithstanding the doubts, there is strong political support within each of the member countries. Moreover, south-south trade now exceeds north-south trade by $2.2 trillion (one-quarter of global trade).

The question is really whether the new bank will become a real developmental bank. I think the probability is very high that it will, and that it will become a significant factor in global development in another decade.

Estimate: 90%