Will Kim Jong Un meet a head of state from one of the G7 countries, South Korea, China, or Russia before 1 June 2015?

Anything is possible. There’s a joke in China. Kim Jong Un calls up Xi Jinping and says “How’s it going Xi. Guess what? We are going to launch another missile.” Xi Jinping asks “Oh really. When?”. Kim answers “in 10, 9, 8, 7…”

Kim Jong Un wants to visit China, possibly within this year. Xi Jinping did visit South Korea earlier this year, breaking with tradition. China’s concern is NK test a nuclear device shortly after a visit, implying it was given a green light by China. Therefore a meeting is unlikely this year, or until NK does test a nuclear device.

Is a high-level meeting with Japan, US, or SK going to happen? A meeting is unlikely, even as relations with Japan is warming on progress over the abduction issue. These parties prefer to negotiate multilateral talks, and we are not likely to see any within this time frame.

That leaves only Putin. I’m really not sure what is the prognosis there, but it doesn’t seem likely unless he can use it to snub China and gain some leverage, somehow…

Estimate: 20% probability.